Outline

1. Introduction to the short-course

2. BlueMath

   1. Structure
   2. Modules: Toolkit, Statistical Downscaling, Hybrid Downscaling, Climate Services
   3. The “axis” of climate services: temporal scale, spatial scale, physical processes

3. Hybrid Downscaling. Additive Models

   1. BinWaves

   Hands-on BinWaves

   b. GreenSurge

4. Hybrid Downscaling. Metamodels

   1. Data Mining

   Hands-on Data Mining

   b. Interpolation

   Hands-on Interpolation

   c. HySwash

   Hands-on HySwash

5. Statistical Downscaling. Part I: Linear Models

   1. Time scales of variability
   2. Tailor-made predictors

   c. Time-dependent extreme value models

6. Statistical Downscaling. Part II: Weather Typing Models

   1. Empirical Model

   Hands-on MUSCLE(I)

   b. Multivariate Extreme Value Model

   c. Climate-based Chronology Model

   Hands-on MUSCLE(II)

7. Climate Services

   1. Short-term Hybrid Forecast of Multimodal Directional Spectra (Cagigal et al 2024)
   2. Hybrid Hindcast of Multimodal Directional Spectra
   3. Statistical Hindcast of Daily Waves (Camus et al 2014, OD)
   4. Statistical Projections of Waves (Perez et al 2015)
   5. Statistical Projections of Storm Surge levels (Cagigal et al 2019)
   6. Statistical Forecast of Storm Surge levels (Tausia et al 2023)
   7. Statistical Hindcast of multivariate wave climate (Camus et al 2014,JGR)
   8. Statistical-Hybrid Hindcast of Shoreline evolution (Antolinez et al 2019)
   9. Climate-based Probabilistic Assessment of Total Water Levels (Anderson et al 2019)
   10. Climate-based Probabilistic Assessment of Shoreline Evolution (Cagigal et al 2020)
   11. Seasonal Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Activity (van Vloten et al 2023)
   12. Short-term Hybrid Forecast of TC-induced waves, surge and TWL (Samoa)